---
title: Event Contributor Analysis
description: Each user is linked to an event based on their badge timestamp, and their activity is measured monthly from four months before to four months after the event (M-4 to M+4). Users are grouped as newcomers if they created their Fedora Account within 30 days prior to the event.
date: 2025-10-12
---{'title': 'Event Contributor Analysis', 'refresh': 'weekly'}Each user is linked to an event based on their badge timestamp, and their activity is measured monthly from four months before to four months after the event (M-4 to M+4). Users are grouped as newcomers if they created their Fedora Account within 30 days prior to the event.
For events that recur annually, we also track whether a user who attended in one year returns to the same event the following year.
import os
import glob
from pathlib import Path
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from collections import defaultdict
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
import pyarrow as pa
import pyarrow.dataset as ds
import pyarrow.parquet as pq
plt.style.use("seaborn-v0_8")
sns.set_theme(context="notebook", style="whitegrid")# @replace DATA_SOURCES
DATA_SOURCES = {"badges": "/home/jovyan/work/badge/output", "datagrepper-parse-accounts": "/home/jovyan/work/bus2parquet/output_users"}
parquet_dir = DATA_SOURCES["datagrepper-parse-accounts"]
badge_data = DATA_SOURCES["badges"] + "/badge.csv"
cutoff_date = (pd.Timestamp.now().replace(day=1) - pd.DateOffset(weeks=52)).date()
files = []
for p in Path(parquet_dir).glob("fedora-*.parquet"):
stem = p.stem.replace("_processed", "")
d = datetime.strptime(stem.split("-")[1], "%Y%m%d").date()
if d >= cutoff_date:
files.append(str(p))
dataset = ds.dataset(files, format="parquet")
chunks = []
for batch in dataset.to_batches(batch_size=50_000):
df = batch.to_pandas()
if "sent_at" not in df.columns or "username" not in df.columns:
continue
df["sent_at"] = pd.to_datetime(df["sent_at"], errors="coerce").dt.floor("s")
chunks.append(df)
combined_df = pd.concat(chunks, ignore_index=True) if chunks else pd.DataFrame()
if not combined_df.empty:
print("Maximum date in data:", combined_df["sent_at"].max().date())
print("Minimum date in data:", combined_df["sent_at"].min().date())
else:
print("No data found in cutoff range")
activity = combined_df
# Get account creation times
fas_df = activity[activity["topic"] == "org.fedoraproject.prod.fas.user.create"]
account_ages = fas_df.groupby("username")["sent_at"].min().reset_index()
account_ages.columns = ["username", "account_created"]
# Load badge CSV
badge_df = pd.read_csv(badge_data, parse_dates=["timestamp"])
print("Latest Badges data timestamp:", badge_df["timestamp"].max())
badge_df.rename(columns={"fas": "username"}, inplace=True)
print("Latest Event Badges data timestamp:", badge_df["timestamp"].max())Maximum date in data: 2025-10-02
Minimum date in data: 2024-10-02
Latest Badges data timestamp: 2025-10-02 22:05:26.251076--------------------------------------------------------------------------- KeyError Traceback (most recent call last) /tmp/ipykernel_939035/340793757.py in ?() 42 badge_df = pd.read_csv(badge_data, parse_dates=["timestamp"]) 43 print("Latest Badges data timestamp:", badge_df["timestamp"].max()) 44 badge_df.rename(columns={"fas": "username"}, inplace=True) 45 #badge_df["event"] = badge_df["badge_id"].map(event_badges) ---> 46 badge_df.dropna(subset=["event", "timestamp"], inplace=True) 47 48 print("Latest Event Badges data timestamp:", badge_df["timestamp"].max()) /opt/conda/lib/python3.11/site-packages/pandas/core/frame.py in ?(self, axis, how, thresh, subset, inplace, ignore_index) 6688 ax = self._get_axis(agg_axis) 6689 indices = ax.get_indexer_for(subset) 6690 check = indices == -1 6691 if check.any(): -> 6692 raise KeyError(np.array(subset)[check].tolist()) 6693 agg_obj = self.take(indices, axis=agg_axis) 6694 6695 if thresh is not lib.no_default: KeyError: ['event']
import re
def parse_badge_id(badge_id: str):
"""
Parse a badge_id like 'flock-2024-attendee' into components.
Returns: (base, year, role)
"""
m = re.match(r"([a-z0-9.\-]+)-(\d{4})-([a-z]+)", badge_id)
if m:
base, year, role = m.groups()
return base, int(year), role
return None, None, None
badge_df[["event_base", "event_year", "event_role"]] = badge_df["badge_id"].apply(
lambda b: pd.Series(parse_badge_id(b))
)
event_display_map = {
"flock": "Flock",
"fosdem": "FOSDEM",
"devconf.cz": "DevConf CZ",
"devconf.us": "DevConf US",
"devconf.in": "DevConf India",
"centos-connect": "CentOS Connect",
"fedora-mentor-summit": "Mentor Summit",
"redhat-summit": "Red Hat Summit",
}
badge_df["event_display"] = (
badge_df["event_base"].map(event_display_map).fillna(badge_df["event_base"].str.title())
+ " "
+ badge_df["event_year"].astype(str)
)
print("Example parsed events:")
print(badge_df[["badge_id", "event_base", "event_year", "event_role", "event_display"]].head())
event_successors = {}
for base, g in badge_df.groupby("event_base"):
years = sorted(g["event_year"].dropna().unique())
for y1, y2 in zip(years[:-1], years[1:]):
src = f"{event_display_map.get(base, base.title())} {y1}"
dst = f"{event_display_map.get(base, base.title())} {y2}"
event_successors[src] = dst
print("Sample successors:")
for k, v in list(event_successors.items())[:10]:
print(f"{k} > {v}")Example parsed events:
badge_id event_base event_year event_role \
0 junior-tagger-tagger-i None NaN None
1 in-search-of-the-bull-tester-i None NaN None
2 like-a-rock-updates-stable-i None NaN None
3 if-you-build-it...-koji-success-ii None NaN None
4 flock-2013-attendee flock 2013.0 attendee
event_display
0 NaN
1 NaN
2 NaN
3 NaN
4 Flock 2013.0
Sample successors:
CentOS Connect 2023.0 > CentOS Connect 2024.0
CentOS Connect 2024.0 > CentOS Connect 2025.0
Devconf 2014.0 > Devconf 2015.0
Devconf 2015.0 > Devconf 2016.0
Devconf 2016.0 > Devconf 2017.0
Devconf 2017.0 > Devconf 2018.0
Devconf 2018.0 > Devconf 2019.0
DevConf CZ 2020.0 > DevConf CZ 2021.0
DevConf CZ 2021.0 > DevConf CZ 2022.0
DevConf CZ 2022.0 > DevConf CZ 2023.0# Per-event profile (fixed to use event_display)
records = []
for event, group in badge_df.groupby("event_display"):
usernames = group["username"].unique()
event_time = pd.to_datetime(group["timestamp"].min())
subset = activity[activity["username"].isin(usernames)].copy()
subset["month_offset"] = ((subset["sent_at"] - event_time) / pd.Timedelta(days=30)).round().astype(int)
subset["bucket"] = subset["month_offset"].apply(
lambda x: f"M{x:+d}" if -4 <= x <= 4 and x != 0 else None
)
msg_counts = subset[subset["bucket"].notnull()].groupby(["username", "bucket"]).size().unstack(fill_value=0)
users = pd.DataFrame({"username": usernames})
badge_times = group.groupby("username")["timestamp"].min()
users["badge_awarded_at"] = users["username"].map(badge_times)
users["account_created"] = users["username"].map(account_ages.set_index("username")["account_created"])
users["days_before_event"] = (event_time - users["account_created"]).dt.days
users["newcomer_30d"] = users["days_before_event"] <= 30
for row in users.itertuples():
profile = {
"event_display": event, # <-- updated
"event_base": group["event_base"].iloc[0], # useful for grouping later
"event_year": group["event_year"].iloc[0], # keep numeric year
"event_date": event_time.date(),
"username": row.username,
"badge_awarded_at": row.badge_awarded_at,
"newcomer_30d": row.newcomer_30d
}
for m in [f"M{-i}" for i in range(4, 0, -1)] + [f"M+{i}" for i in range(1, 5)]:
profile[m] = msg_counts.loc[row.username, m] if row.username in msg_counts.index and m in msg_counts.columns else 0
records.append(profile)
df = pd.DataFrame(records)
assert "username" in df.columns
# Flag return using dynamic successors
if event_successors:
for src, succ in event_successors.items():
future_users = set(badge_df[badge_df["event_display"] == succ]["username"])
df.loc[df["event_display"] == src, "returned_next_year"] = df["username"].isin(future_users)Number of newcomers (joined ≤30 days before event) per event.
# Apply event_display_map, drop events that aren't in the map
badge_df["event_display"] = badge_df["event_base"].map(event_display_map) + " " + badge_df["event_year"].astype(str)
# Remove rows where event_display_map didn't have a mapping
badge_df = badge_df[badge_df["event_base"].isin(event_display_map.keys())].copy()
# Add helper column
df["contributor_type"] = df["newcomer_30d"].map({True: "Newcomer", False: "Existing"})from datetime import datetime
# --- Filter last 5 years ---
current_year = datetime.now().year
recent_df = df[df["event_year"] >= current_year - 5].copy()
# Count newcomers and existing by event/year
counts = (
recent_df.groupby(["event_base", "event_year", "contributor_type"])["username"]
.count()
.reset_index()
)
# Pivot to get newcomer + existing side by side
pivot = counts.pivot_table(
index=["event_base", "event_year"],
columns="contributor_type",
values="username",
fill_value=0
).reset_index()
# Add total
pivot["Total"] = pivot["Newcomer"] + pivot["Existing"]
# Build heatmap matrix of totals
heatmap_data = pivot.pivot(index="event_base", columns="event_year", values="Total")
# Build annotation matrix: "New/Existing"
anno_matrix = heatmap_data.copy().astype(str)
for idx, row in pivot.iterrows():
anno_matrix.loc[row["event_base"], row["event_year"]] = f"{row['Newcomer']}/{row['Existing']}"
# --- Plot ---
plt.figure(figsize=(14, max(6, len(heatmap_data) * 0.6)))
sns.heatmap(
heatmap_data,
annot=anno_matrix,
fmt="",
cmap="Blues",
linewidths=0.5,
linecolor="gray",
cbar_kws={"label": "Total Attendees"}
)
plt.title("Event Attendance (Newcomers/Existing) - Last 5 Years", fontsize=16)
plt.xlabel("Year")
plt.ylabel("Event")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
Plot average activity before (M-1 to M-4) vs after (M+1 to M+4) per event and by contributor type.
activity_cols = [f"M{-i}" for i in range(4, 0, -1)] + [f"M+{i}" for i in range(1, 5)]
filtered_df = df[df["event_base"].isin(event_display_map.keys())].copy()
# Melt into long format for time series plotting
melted = filtered_df.melt(
id_vars=["event_display", "event_base", "event_year", "contributor_type"],
value_vars=activity_cols,
var_name="month",
value_name="msg_count"
)
# Aggregate average msg_count
activity_summary = (
melted.groupby(["event_display", "contributor_type", "month"])["msg_count"]
.mean()
.reset_index()
)
# Sort months
activity_summary["month"] = pd.Categorical(
activity_summary["month"],
categories=activity_cols,
ordered=True
)
# Plot — one row per event (using display names)
g = sns.FacetGrid(
activity_summary,
row="event_display",
hue="contributor_type",
height=2.5,
aspect=3,
sharey=False,
palette={"Newcomer": "lightblue", "Existing": "steelblue"}
)
g.map(sns.lineplot, "month", "msg_count")
g.add_legend(title="Contributor Type")
g.set_axis_labels("Month Offset from Event", "Avg. Messages")
g.set_titles("{row_name}")
g.fig.subplots_adjust(top=0.95)
g.fig.suptitle("Activity Profiles: Newcomers vs Existing Contributors", fontsize=16)
plt.show()
Show % of attendees who returned to the next year’s event (from returned_next_year flag).
# Compute return rates by event_display with base + year included
return_rate = (
filtered_df.groupby(["event_display", "event_base", "event_year"])["returned_next_year"]
.mean()
.reset_index()
)
# Convert to percentage
return_rate["return_rate"] = return_rate["returned_next_year"] * 100
# Sort by base, then year
return_rate = return_rate.sort_values(["event_base", "event_year"])
# Plot
plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
sns.barplot(
data=return_rate,
x="event_display",
y="return_rate",
color="steelblue"
)
plt.xticks(rotation=45, ha="right")
plt.ylabel("Return Rate (%)")
plt.title("Event-to-Event Return Engagement (Sorted by Base → Year)")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
Average monthly message count from M-4 to M+4 per event.
current_year = datetime.now().year
filtered_df = df[
(df["event_base"].isin(event_display_map.keys())) &
(df["event_year"] >= current_year - 3)
].copy()
# Group by display/base/year and compute mean activity
monthly_profile = (
filtered_df.groupby(["event_display", "event_base", "event_year"])[activity_columns]
.mean()
.reset_index()
.sort_values(["event_base", "event_year"])
.set_index("event_display")
)
# Just the activity columns for heatmap
heatmap_data = monthly_profile[activity_columns]
plt.figure(figsize=(14, max(6, len(heatmap_data) * 0.5)))
sns.heatmap(
heatmap_data,
annot=True,
fmt=".1f",
cmap="rocket_r",
linewidths=0.5,
linecolor="gray"
)
plt.title("Avg. Monthly Activity Offset by Event (Sorted by Base → Year)")
plt.xlabel("Month Offset from Event")
plt.ylabel("Event")
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()